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Future Forecasting

How to navigate the unexpected and expected.


In today’s world, where change is the only constant, we now more than ever need to be able to look over the horizon toward the future. This must be more than just a wish: in a time when technology is developing at an accelerating pace and consumer expectations are constantly changing, it is a matter of survival. Future Forecasting is not just a trendy buzzword, but a growing vital part of our everyday toolbox.


Your Compass into the Future

Think of future Forecasting as a compass. The compass functions as a powerful and sophisticated device, designed with interdisciplinary methods. This compass is not directed towards the magnetic north, but rather towards the future. It takes us beyond what we can see, into the territory of the unknown and unexplored.


Within Future Forecasting there are several tools and models that we also go through in the Stellar Future Forecasting Program, where you get to familiarize yourself with the tools that Paul Saffo, one of the world's leading futurists, actively advocates. One of these tools is the so-called "Cone of Possibilities”. A model that helps to decode the uncertainty of our future. The future is seen as a widening, funnel-like cone, where each step forward expands the scope of possibilities. In the model, the widening of the cone represents the increasing uncertainty in our forecasts.





The power of this model lies precisely in its ability to accommodate uncertainty. A wider cone gives us room for alternative scenarios, to see possible trends and discover new opportunities that could potentially drastically impact the business. It is risky to draw the cone too narrow - we may overlook and miss important opportunities and become exposed to unexpected surprises ahead, just as when the pandemic arose and surprised many precisely because they had overlooked this potential risk.


The important takeaway from this model is that the core of the "Cone of Possibilities" lies not in obsessing over finding the 'correct' scenario, but to acknowledge the future as uncertain, where there is a spectrum of possible outcomes. Instead of trying to predict the future precisely, this model gives us the ability to navigate through the future with open eyes and adaptability.

 

For those who want to delve deeper into future forecasting, Stellar Capacity’s Future Forecasting program takes place on the 20th -22th of March, 2024, in Stockholm. The program is for you who want to strengthen your environmental monitoring, gain insights into how to anticipate more of the unexpected, and get concrete tools to work with future scenarios in your everyday life. Don't hesitate to contact us today - at info@stellarcapacity.com to get more information and to find out how we can support your business on the path into the future!

 

References:

Introducing Future Forecasting


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